What to know about the primaries in California, New Jersey, Mississippi and elsewhere

1. Voters in blue cities send a message about crime – again

It has become clear that voters, even in blue cities, are willing to punish Democrats seen as being too lenient on crime. Tuesday brought particularly pronounced examples of this trend.

In San Francisco, voters made the historic decision to recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was elected in 2019 when he ran on the idea of ​​a less punitive criminal justice system, including ending cash bail and sending fewer people to jail. The latest results show voters recalling him by a strong margin, 60% to 40%, with around 61% of votes counted.

In Los Angeles, Rick Caruso and Rep. Karen Bass (D-California), who was once considered a candidate for President Biden’s running mate, appear to be heading for a runoff in the mayoral race. But Caruso, a longtime former Republican who has made fighting crime the centerpiece of his campaign, led Bass 42 to 37 percent early on.

The results come after voters returned similar verdicts in the 2021 election. In Minneapolis, Buffalo, Seattle and New York’s Long Island, they voted against candidates and measures related to the “defund the police” movement and to a cash deposit. But Boudin could now be the prime example, given his politics and San Francisco’s reputation as one of the most liberal cities in the country.

President Biden and other leading Democrats have tried to steer their party away from “defunding the police” and other related efforts, clearly worrying about the potential cost of the ballot box. And few members of Congress have actually embraced this movement. But the local level has often been another matter, and Tuesday provided the latest wake-up call about the potency of this problem.

2. The January 6 commission suddenly became a problem?

Later this week, the House Jan. 6 committee will begin holding public hearings on the Capitol insurrection. And on Tuesday, lawmakers’ previous votes on a bipartisan Jan. 6 9/11-style commission suddenly became a flashpoint.

Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), who was one of 35 House Republicans to vote for the commission, unexpectedly found himself fighting for his political life. He trailed Michael Cassidy with 88% of the vote, a result few saw coming. Either candidate would need 50% plus one to avoid a runoff.

Another House Republican who voted for the commission was Rep. Dusty Johnson (RS.D.). He ended up surviving his primary against state Rep. Taffy Howard but only got about 59% of the vote, lower than other South Dakota GOP officials facing primaries. Howard attacked Johnson for being too bipartisan, including refusing to sign off on then-President Donald Trump’s attempts to void the 2020 election.

As Johnson’s example shows, it’s hard to tell how much of that dynamic stems from that particular vote. Unlike the votes to impeach Trump, the votes for the Jan. 6 commission (which failed in the Senate before the House launched a less bipartisan select committee) have yet to register as a major issue. But that’s partly because there’s an overlap between this issue and others in which members have crossed partisan lines (like impeachment votes).

Another of the commission’s supporters in the House GOP, Rep. David B. McKinley (RW.Va.), lost his primary last month. But it was against another incumbent, Rep. Alex Mooney (RW.Va.) who also targeted McKinley for the latter’s vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

So we’ll have to keep an eye on that.

3. No more problems in place

Guest wasn’t the only struggling Mississippi Republican.

Rep. Steven M. Palazzo is heading to a runoff after trying to fend off a challenge stemming from his alleged embezzlement. He was at 32%, well below the majority needed to avoid a second round, with 97% of the votes counted. It’s also a number that suggests a holder is likely to lose their runoff. (It appears his second-round opponent will be Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell.)

And in California, Reps. David G. Valadao (R) and Young Kim (R) were trying to finish first or second in their respective districts in the state’s top two primary systems. Valadao was one of 10 Republicans to vote to impeach Trump, but he escaped a high-profile challenger backed by Trump. (His opponent, Chris Mathys, lost the GOP primaries in New Mexico in 2018 and 2020.) Kim was running in a substantially uncharted district after a redistricting.

If other incumbents fell, they would join four predecessors. McKinley and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) lost incumbent vs. incumbent matchups, while moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) fell to a more liberal challenger in a significantly redrawn district, and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (RN.C.) lost after a series of personal issues.

Virtually every primary night has allowed us to glean clues about Trump’s grip on the GOP and his kingmaker status — with a decidedly mixed verdict so far.

Tuesday’s primaries, by contrast, included few big tests. But there were still noticeable results.

In New Jersey, Republican Frank Pallotta was poised to defeat state GOP pick Nick De Gregorio. Democrats had attacked Pallotta for being too Trumpy, in a clear effort to elevate him. Although he backed Pallotta in his failed 2020 bid for the same seat, Trump did not endorse him this time. But the county’s GOP endorsements are huge in New Jersey, given these candidates get top-notch placement, and a loss of De Gregorio would be significant. (The winner faces Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in a blue-tilt seat.)

And in Montana, former Trump Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was in a very close race to try to return to Congress. Trump has backed Zinke despite resigning from the administration in 2018 amid ethics investigations. Zinke was attacked by the right as supposedly too liberal; his closest competitor is former state senator Al Olszewski.

If Zinke loses, it would be a significant setback for Trump — given it was a competitive primary in which he actually made an endorsement.

5. Efforts to thwart Medicaid expansion fail in SD

In South Dakota, a circumvention attempt to thwart Medicaid expansion has failed. Opponents of the expansion, which will be on the ballot in November, have tried to get the state to adjust the threshold and similar voting measures to 60%, rather than a simple majority. The practical impact of this proposed rule, which was on the primary ballot Tuesday, would have been a majority of voters deciding to prevent another majority from expanding Medicaid later this year.

In the end, he fell short of a majority: Constitutional Amendment C trailed 67% to 33% on Wednesday morning. The thrust of the effort was clear: proponents of Medicaid expansion succeeded in the face of GOP opposition, even in red states, using ballot measures, but the measures only exceeded 60% approval once – in Idaho, in 2018.

If a majority votes to expand Medicaid in November, South Dakota will be the 39th state to do so.

6. A rare father-son duo in New Jersey

In January, it looks like New Jersey will send two Robert Menendez (Bobs Menendez?) to Congress. This is after the senator’s son, Robert Menendez Jr., easily won a primary in the 8th congressional district.

It is very common for family members to win House seats previously held by their relatives. It is much less common for two generations of the same family to sit in Congress simultaneously; the New York Times reported that it happened only a handful of times. The last time appears to be when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) rode for two years with his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), ten years ago.

Young Menendez, a lawyer and first-time candidate, will be a heavy favorite in November to fill the House seat his father vacated to join the Senate in 2006.